美国中期选举登场 共和党或夺两院控制权

美国中期选举将于美国东部时间周二(8日)早上正式投票,票站最早于美东周二清晨5时(澳洲东部时间周二晚上9时)陆续开放。维珍尼亚大学政治中心预测,共和党将以237席对198席,轻而易举地夺回众院,并以51比49席,勉强取得参院多数地位。只要共和党控制国会两院其中一院,就有实力阻挡拜登政府的立法议程。

参、众两院席位竞争激烈

据法新社报导,这次期中选举将选出美国联邦众议院全部435席、联邦参议院100席中的35席及36州州长,并且包含州级议员、州务卿及州检察长等选举。

其中宾夕凡尼亚州民主党籍候选人John Fetterman能否赢得席位受外界关注,这议席对民主党能否保住参议院控制权有关键作用。

众议院同样竞争激烈,弗吉尼亚(Virginia)第2选区的民主党众议员卢里亚(Elaine Luria)负责主导该院调查国会山庄暴动案;纽约州第17选区的民主党众议员马洛尼(Sean Patrick Maloney)是该党国会竞选委员会主席,他们若未能连任将揭示民意。

 州长选举方面,这次共改选36名州长,关键摇摆州份包括亚利桑那州、内华达州和威斯康辛州,其中亚利桑那州的共和党候选人莱克(Kari Lake)获川普支持,她拒绝承认拜登的总统资格,并承诺一旦当选将废除邮寄选票制度。共和党的佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯已胜券在握,他的胜利幅度将影响党内对他参选2024年总统能力的评估。

提前投票人数超过2018年

佛罗里达大学(Florida University)“美国选举计画”(US Elections Project)在7日统计,已有4200多万人在8日期中选举前提前投票,人数超越2018年选举时的3910万人。

共和党籍议员已在几个选情恐陷胶着的州对提前投票提出技术性异议。

例如在宾州,州最高法院裁定,若邮寄选票的信封上没有写明日期,则不能计入有效票,这项决定可能会影响数以千计选票。

在威斯康辛州,不在籍投票必须在见证人面前密封信封,但如果见证人地址不完整,选票即可被视为无效票。

投票前一天 拜登支持率跌破四成

路透社/易普索(Reuters/Ipsos)7日公布的最新民调显示,拜登的支持度再次跌破4成,仅剩39%,恐怕预示民主党在国会两院的败局。

据报导,这份花费2天进行的选前民调发现,美国民众对拜登表现的认可度下降1个百分点,接近他上任以来的最低纪录。拜登不受选民欢迎的程度,加深了共和党人将在选后掌控众院,且有机会拿下参院多数的观点。

共和党:夺回众院将全面调查拜登政府

联邦众议院共和党领袖麦卡锡(Kevin McCarthy)表示,若共和党如预期拿下众院,将对民主党籍总统拜登的政府展开全面调查。

可能的调查包括美国从阿富汗撤军、新冠疫情源头等事项。

麦卡锡也指出,共和党重掌众议院后,将优先处理美墨边境安全、抑制通货膨胀及削减政府开支等议题,并指第一件事就是控制边界的法案,光是今年就有近200万人跨境来到美国。

中期选举花费超过167亿美元

最新数据显示,美国各州及联邦政府用于中期选举的支出,总成本预计将超过167亿美元,是历来最贵的一次。

无党派机构OpenSecrets研究结果显示,在联邦候选人和相关委员会方面的支出上,共和党花费46亿美元超过了民主党的39亿美元;在州长竞选的支出,则分别是11亿美元和8.23亿美元。

除了竞选活动,两党用于选举广告的开支同样惊人,合共投放近100亿美元,几乎是4年前中期选举的3倍。其中共和党的广告主题主要围绕通货膨胀、犯罪和税收问题,民主党则主要投放与堕胎权相关的广告。

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