習近平與世界拼權力

從二十國集團巴厘島峰會(G20),到在泰國曼谷舉行的亞太經濟合作會議(APEC),世界領袖的聚會成為媒體的聚焦點,而其中最令人關注的莫過於美國總統拜登與中國國家主席習近平。這是疫情大流行以來,習近平首次與西方領袖見面。在拜登和澳洲總理阿爾巴尼斯(Antony Albanese)先後與習近平在巴厘島會晤後,澳洲媒體評論道,這次與中國的見面再次說明了,「我們已經不在國際的標準和規則下生存,而是以權力來擺放前後位置」。

2022 APEC
2022年 在泰國舉行Apec ( 圖:官方臉書)

習近平仍是習近平

11月16日,澳廣ABC的報道直言不諱地說:「拜登和阿爾巴尼斯先後與習近平坐下來會晤,並不是因為國際邦交抑或相互間的投機,只是因為習近平的權力。 」 

世界必須面對的是,習近平仍是習近平,那位被指責是新疆種族的滅絕者,那位試圖武力侵犯台灣的主使,那位打破香港一國兩治承諾,被拜登總統稱為打手和暴徒的人;那位稱普京為好友、支持俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭的人。

報道稱,阿爾巴尼斯在會談之後表示,澳洲沒有改變我們的價值,只是用一種更「成熟」的方式、而不是「政治」的角度與中國會晤,他稱,與習談論了許多問題包括對澳洲的經濟制裁,澳洲公民在中國受到關押,台灣問題,氣候問題以及新疆的人權問題等,但外界不知道習近平是如何回應的。不過令澳洲憂心會「觸怒」北京的澳英美核子潛艇協議(AUKUS)和澳印美日四方聯盟(Quad)居然在與會上並沒有提及。

11月8日,習近平以中共總書記、中央軍委主席、軍委聯指總指揮身份,視察中央軍委聯合作戰指揮中心,他身穿新式迷彩軍裝,向解放軍軍官喊話,要求部隊「全部精力向打仗聚焦,全部工作向打仗用勁,加快提高打贏能力。」

澳媒分析道,對中國來說,目前沒有比拿下台灣更迫在眉睫的了,無論在與澳美會晤中談了什麼,應該都沒有辦法改變習近平要用一統台灣作為確立國際地位的路線。也就是說,儘管兩國元首會談了,但實際上並沒有任何承諾或改變任何事情。

雖然阿爾巴尼斯總理沾沾自喜的稱,AUKUS核潛艇協議在11月15日與習的會晤中沒有提及,但中共喉舌環球時報在幾日後的11月19日發文表示,「AUKUS就是阻礙了中澳關係改善的屏障」,直指,「如果堪培拉無視北京對AUKUS的擔憂,這個協議仍將是中澳關係的一根刺,也可能破壞雙邊關係的健康發展。」 阿爾巴尼斯對此回應道,「沒什麼可意外的」,他表示,澳洲可以與重要的盟友英國和美國達成任何共識,核子潛艇也將改善澳洲的安全。 

外界分析稱,由於近年來澳美的聯盟才促成了澳中的會面,中國希望談的是美國,卻由於前美國總統川普的政策,美國對華為的咬緊不放,對中國實施關稅制裁,外企大規模撤資等,已經讓中國在經濟上感到巨大的壓力,因此可以說,這次是中國希望與美國會晤,「惠及」澳洲也就順便與阿爾巴尼斯見面了。

 修復中的澳中關係

回到澳中關係,阿爾巴尼斯在5月大選前曾揚言,「中國已經改變了」,以及「他們會前傾聆聽我們澳洲的價值觀」。但在ABC的報道中評論說,現在的阿爾巴尼斯似乎改口了,他稱沒有必要為了澳洲的利益或國內的政治觀點來反抗北京。

澳中首腦
阿爾巴尼斯與習近平會晤 ( Getty Image)

習近平也為對澳洲經濟制裁的失敗找了一個台階,他希望與會的每個人都認為,這次與澳大利亞的會晤是因為「澳大利亞變了」,而不是中國。ABC評論道,習近平永遠不會承認這兩年半對澳洲切斷聯繫和實施貿易懲罰的戰略是失敗的。

澳洲前外交部長Julie Bishop指出,在阿爾巴尼斯與習近平會晤之後,在修復與中國的關係上,澳洲的取捨是「棘手」的。

據9號新聞報道稱, Bishop稱與中國的會晤在修復澳中關係上的第一步是相當不錯的,但堪培拉卻開始要面對棘手的後續了。 

除了經濟和利益,在其他方面上,澳洲和中國幾乎是背道而馳的,無論是中國在南海地區不斷擴張的野心,還是與所羅門國的安全協議,澳中兩國是爭鋒相對的。兩國領袖在2016年之後就沒有見過面,Bishop認為,或許工黨政府應該越過雙方的衝突區域,試著找出對兩國都有利益的地方進行發展。

「這次會晤絕對可以視為結束了這麼多年凍結的兩國關係,我認為中國會開始有後續舉動,然後要求一些什麼。」Bishop說道,「當然澳洲總理會把與中國的雙向關係與我們的國家利益掌握的很好。」

澳洲知名作家Graham Lloyd似乎也表達了與Bishop相似的論點,他向天空新聞稱,兩國間重新有聯繫絕對是好事,但開花之後就會結果,他認為下一步北京會開始與美國及澳洲重新連線,「目前的果實是什麼我們還沒看清楚,但是我能肯定的是商界應該要學聰明些,記得以往的教訓。」他說。

新西蘭前總理JOHN KEY也在澳洲人報上發文稱,「中國的經濟發展已經改變了我們的經濟走向」。這樣的結論雖然來自新西蘭,但近兩年來北京對澳洲大麥、牛肉和海產的經濟懲罰,也讓澳洲感同身受。「我曾經與中國簽署自由貿易協定,當然其中的約定包括了在對待香港和台灣問題上保持『一個中國』的觀點。」 JOHN KEY說。

平壤又射導彈 北京「露骨地包庇朝鮮」

朝鮮問題一直是美中權力交鋒另一個戰場。11月18日,朝鮮不顧國際社會的警告,再次試射了一枚洲際彈道導彈,令美國與APEC領導人在峰會議程之外舉行緊急磋商。

朝鮮導彈
朝鮮發射的「火星-17」型洲際彈道導彈(ICBM)(Getty Image)

日本和韓國軍方認為,朝鮮當天發射的「火星-17」型洲際彈道導彈(ICBM)打擊範圍可覆蓋美國全境,其導彈技術已取得相當進展。《韓聯社》援引韓國聯合參謀本部的消息報道說,射程可達1萬5千公里的「火星-17」型導彈採用多彈頭分導式載具,一旦在目標上空成功完成彈頭分離,可同步打擊華盛頓和紐約。

今年以來,在國際社會關注焦點大多集中在烏俄戰爭以及美中關係急劇惡化之際,朝鮮進行了創紀錄的80多次導彈試射,在最新的這次洲際彈道導彈試射之後,朝鮮實施第七次核試驗的可能性進一步加大。

據報道,美國總統拜登和韓國總統尹錫悅在二十國集團峰會期間會晤中國領導人習近平時,都再次敦促中國在遏制朝鮮核威脅方面發揮更積極、更具建設性的作用。然而,觀察人士注意到,習近平對此有意完全迴避。在美中關係急劇惡化的大背景之下,中國越來越傾向於袒護朝鮮,他正試圖用手中的權力讓美國忌憚。

聯合國安理會本月初曾就朝鮮頻繁進行導彈試射問題進行了審議,在中國和俄羅斯的反對之下,安理會無法對朝鮮加強制裁。美國駐聯合國代表格林菲爾德(Linda Thomas-Greenfield)指出,安理會15個成員國中有13個同意譴責朝鮮自今年以來的導彈試驗,而中國和俄羅斯「不遺餘力」地為朝鮮進行辯護。

 「國際向權力俯首稱臣」

ABC的報道評論說,國際正在向權力俯首稱臣,可能是意識到習近平將是終身的中國領導,習對拜登表示會加入G20改善氣候,「但中國對這件事會花多少精力,那就不得而知了」。 

澳新社稱,在阿爾巴尼斯和習「握手言合」之後,經濟可以重新啟動,但對於中國的人權問題,澳洲政府不能忽視不理。而ABC也在國際峰會結束後發表文章稱,峰會在貿易、人權和外交等方面,習近平的中國仍然無法掩飾與西方社會的鴻溝。澳媒分析稱,在為期9天的會議中,有些問題被「刻意」地遺忘了,有專家表示,在這個讓中國與西方社會握手言和的機會中,會「刺痛」中國的話題明顯被忽略了。

「歷史不是過去,它更像懸在未來頭上的利劍;西方沒有歷史,只有時間和事件,」ABC的報道分析稱,「但是對習近平和普京來說,歷史是融在血液、長在骨子裡的。阿爾巴尼斯與拜登是無法了解中國或是習近平,因為他們生長在西方,眼睛看到的只有未來。」

歷史對西方世界來說,就是寶庫,收藏在博物館,西方社會在面對歷史性的傷痕時,談論的是如何面對悲劇、如何補償、如何安排好未來,例如澳洲原住民 「被偷走的一代人」 的悲劇。但是,當面對中國和習近平的時候,阿爾巴尼斯不會明白,歷史對中國人來說是一個記憶和權力;西方國家不可能看見中國在任何歷史事件上出來妥協或彌補,1989年的天安門事件被西方媒體定為「屠殺」,這段歷史對於中國政府來說,永遠不可能出面承認,因為這是一個權力的記憶。同樣的,習近平在表達對台灣看法的時候,他提出的不是對這個島嶼未來的安排和要求,他宣示的是泱泱大國的身份和歷史主權。

古代歐洲哲學家黑格爾說中國人沒有歷史,只有不斷的輪迴。 

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