10月1日是中共的国庆节，大家有闲心听一些奇谈怪论。咱们就来聊聊，最近引起国际、国内好奇的一些谣言吧。
国际第一关注的谣言，是有关俄罗斯到德国的输气管道被炸毁了。什么原因不清楚，各种谣言纷纷传播，各国之间互相抨击，确实够热闹的。但结果很清楚，就是欧洲国家依赖的俄罗斯天然气，今年冬天肯定没戏了。就算欧盟争取到俄罗斯的妥协，俄罗斯也没办法供应天然气，所以欧盟向俄罗斯妥协也就没意义了。战争还得继续。
中国人民和海外华人第一关注的谣言，就是有关习近平被软禁了、要下台了等等一连串的好消息。就像聪明人的顺口溜说的那样：谣言就是遥遥领先的预言。能迅速广泛地传开来，就是因为大家希望这样的结果。既然是大家都希望的结果，那么梦想成真的概率就很大了。一不小心，谣言还就可能成真。
首先来看为什么大家都希望习近平被软禁，甚至下台。那是因为这几年来，咱们习总确实折腾得有些不靠谱。经济嘛经济下滑严重，政治嘛政治越来越独裁。政治经济之外弄出个什么病毒清零，把人都堵在家里不说，还满大街抓人检测。检测鼻子还不行，还要什么检查肛拭子。在大街上把人家小姑娘扒了裤子检查，这简直就是合法强奸罪了。公知精英们羞答答地说什么快要文革了，文革有这样官方大汉们当街扒人家妇女裤子的吗？习氏暴政已经不如文革了。
现在是老百姓希望习近平下台，至少被软禁，就像当年老百姓都希望抓捕四人帮一样。如果真的把习近平抓起来了，会是个什么新情况呢？老百姓最关心的是市场经济能不能恢复活力，失业会不会减少，工资会不会提高。企业界最关心的是，国进民退是不是会逆转，经营条件是不是会宽松。官僚们关心的就更多了，自己是否不用进监狱了，在海外的财产是不是会被冻结，等等。
看来习近平下台符合大家的利益和愿望，那他最好就下台吧。但是，很多事情就怕但是。一旦习近平下台了，谁来替换他？谁能解决经济下滑的问题？谁能扭转外交的困境？最简单的就是解除清零政策，小习招募的那帮大白们会不会造反？连这个都没人敢接盘，所以党内才会出台一个妥协，华国锋模式。当然，这只是个谣言。
但是他们会接受华国锋的模式吗？习近平不怕得罪全国老百姓而受到报复吗？他不敢冒这个险，他那帮无能但善于内斗的马仔们，也不会接受这个结果。马仔下边的无数个大白们，也会成为造反的力量。还有基层血债累累的土皇帝们，他们知道妥协是什么结果。就是小习接受妥协，他们也接受不了。这局面不是华国锋的局面了。
如果真有一场政变，那就不应该是一个妥协的局面。妥协只是一个幻想，双方都不会接受。谁下手最狠谁赢，这就是个零和的局面，不存在妥协的余地。怎样才能收拾局面呢？只有符合全国人民愿望的最大公约数，才能稳定地运转下去，否则只能是天下大乱。
老百姓的愿望是权利得到保障，不失业，涨工资。资产阶级的愿望是不被割韭菜，正常发财。官员们的愿望是不再被进监狱所威胁，甚至可以展现才能。综合这些愿望，只有推行法治才有可能。而法治不行的最大障碍，就是一党专政下没有民主。一党专制连党内民主也不能保障，所以只能进行彻底的政治体制改革或者说革命，才能满足政变后社会的要求，才能稳定地过渡到新的局面中。除此别无它路。
（全文转自自由亚洲电台）
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