中共北戴河会议结束之后，国家主席习近平与总理李克强，以不同路、不同行的方式现身南北两地，习去了辽宁锦州，李去了广东深圳，这一南一北的异地出访，这种话语不同调、殊途不同归的景象，意谓中共党内已经出现“南辕北辙的路线分歧”；即使习近平顺利于20大连任，未来中共政局也将走向假和谐、半稳定的状态。
习李一人一把号，各唱各的调
习近平的锦州之行，第一站就考察了“辽沈战役纪念馆”（台湾称“辽西战役”），强调“共同富裕、皆大欢喜”，发出的是“毛派作风”，一种怀旧主义的左倾路线；李克强的深圳之行，强调稳经济，要求“经济大省挑大梁”，在考察盐田港时，李克强强调“中国开放还要继续往前推进，黄河长江不会倒流”，表现的是“邓派作风”，也就是继承邓小平改革开放的路线。换言之，习李不同调、路线不齐一，反映出中共正处两条路线的斗争，虽然隐而不发，但依然是一场深层斗争。
实际上，习李南北分头出访，恰巧反映了中共当前的政经危机。习近平以缅怀“辽沈战役”试图提振士气、巩固民心，实际上又是“大话治国”的再度表演，一个只能借用历史荣光来充当自己的顶上皇冠，正说明习近平底气空虚、良政无多；至于李克强在喊出“黄河长江不会到流”之时，虽然本意是指中国经济尚不至濒临崩溃，强调改革开放不回头，但是在强调“稳经济”之际，李也提醒南方六大经济大省要确保财税上缴中央，不可自给自足，意指不得暗藏“小金库”，这透露出当前中共已经面临国库空虚、财政吃紧的窘态。
中共的“合法性危机”
北戴河会议之后，人们最为关注的是习近平权力地位的升降与浮沈，毕竟这是牵动大局、攸关命运的事件。
以西方政治学的理论来说，所谓“合法性危机”（crisis of legitimacy）适足以说明威胁习近平地位的三大因素：
1、动态清零造成总体经济的下滑。这种伤筋动骨的经济衰退，注定中共将走向“下行经济”的格局，短期既无法复苏，长期也不容乐观。
2、美中冲突、台海危机、中欧失联、北欧脱共，全球围中，这种战狼四处咬人、八方为敌的冲突外交，使中国陷入四面楚歌、孤立无援的地步。
3、一带一路宣告失败，债务如山、催讨无门；亚投行无人投资，机能停摆，形成虚设，造成财政空虚，国际重责。
习近平的“危机合法性”
相反的，以“中国政治学”的角度来看，“危机的合法性”（legitimacy of crisis）－以制造危机来巩固权力－适足以说明习近平保住权位也有三个因素：
1、民族主义救习近平：以大外宣、造神运动塑造习近平的“神主牌”地位，也也就是粉饰太平、屏蔽矛盾，再以喂食韭菜百姓“民族主义鸦片”的方式，宣称继续掌权的必要性。
2、危机情势保习近平：利用外部危机，制造党内团结。例如不断升高台海危机和美中冲突，宣称危机之中不能没有抵御外敌的权力核心，主张只有“习总”在位才能抵制“帝国主义亡我之心”。
3、党内分赃撑习近平：党内高层抱持“多一事不如少一事”，采取保持现状来分赃权力的阿Q精神，大家和稀泥、卡位置，皆大欢喜。
习李关系：有没有可能“习下李上”？
一种看法认为李克强将取代习近平，也就“习下李上”；这虽是猜测之词，但并非毫无可能，只是机率甚微。
另一种看法是李克强早已倒向习近平，只会乖乖听话。李克强的深圳谈话，只是一场“临别赠言”，虽出自肺腑，也是无力回天。
在我看来，20大李克强将届满退下，但习近平也未必志得意满，只会在一种“走钢索”的情势下继续掌权。理由是，李克强是中共历来最弱势的总理，缺乏派系背景，没有倒习的胆识和力量，只能扮演救火队队长的角色；其次，李克强即使掌管全国经济大权，也救不了中共经济。与其充当习近平的炮灰，不如急流勇退。
中共政局：假和谐与半稳定
虽然北戴河会议之后，中共看起来平静无波、一团和气，但这种气氛只是和稀泥、图分赃、保权位的“假和谐”；大陆人民多数认为，与其接受习近平“共同富裕”看似华丽却让少数人为富不仁的主张，不如支持邓小平“让一部分人先富起来”这种看似不公却让多数人安稳度日的路线。换言之，习李路线之争，依然有如一股暗流潜伏于中共党内，造成党内权力结构的“半稳定”。假和谐与半稳定，将是中共未来政局的隐性特征，但沧浪清水可以濯暗流，不仅黄河长江不会倒流，文明之路也不会倒转，正必胜邪。
（※本文作者为政治大学国际关系研究中心资深研究员，政治与文化评论家，全文转自上报）
本文由看新闻网转载发布，仅代表原作者或原平台观点，不代表本网站立场。 看新闻网仅提供信息发布平台，文章或有适当删改。
本文网址：https://vct.news/news/5fabee85-c9f5-4c59-b315-3e666203f4ac
68 Apart from amisulpride, SGAs are extensively metabolized through CYP enzymes, and some also by glucuronidation buy liquid cialis online Follow up time was quantified in terms of a Kaplan Meier estimate of potential follow up 19
buy cialis online without prescription Crazyivan, USA 2022 06 19 01 35 50
com 20 E2 AD 90 20Viagra 20Feminino 20Bula 20 20Diy 20Viagra 20Condom 20Csd500 diy viagra condom csd500 Palestinian youths hurled stones towards Israeli troops and settlers in Hebron, a day after a deadly attack in a refugee camp sparked anger in the West Bank and raised doubts about the prospect of renewed peace negotiations buy generic propecia united states If the hair loss still does not improve after several months, there may be another cause such as a thyroid disorder
After careful observation, you will primary hypertension medications find that furosemide dosage for edema it is actually integrated under the flashing luster tab ivermectin 3mg
Patency of stents covered with polytetrafluoroethylene in patients treated by transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts long term results of a randomized multicentre study canadian pharmacy cialis 20mg
S ome climbers take prescription medications such as acetazolamide or nifedipine Procardia to help prevent signs and symptoms of HAPE cialis from india com 20 E2 AD 90 20Viagra 20Preo 20Farmcia 20Popular 20 20Lowest 20Price 20Viagra 20Online viagra preo farmcia popular A standout currency was the New Zealand dollar, which made astrong comeback after the country s central bank surprised someby sounding slightly hawkish, even as it pledged to leave theovernight cash rate OCR unchanged at a record low 2
how much does clomid cost bisacodyl decreases levels of potassium chloride by inhibition of GI absorption
Underlying kidney disease impacts the recognition of DIKD tamoxifen
nolvadex 20 mg The structural formula is as follows Furosemide is available in 20 mg, 40 mg and 80 mg tablets for oral administration
viagra premature ejaculation The past few weeks have definitely been a challenge for us all, which is why I wanted to send you a quick note to see how you were doing and to share with you on something I am looking forward to
Krieg P, Schipper I 1992 Bilaterale Optikusneuropathie nach Amiodaron Therapie levitra gratuits Jabara never let me down
To map the fate of NPCs and their progeny in the adult CNS, we crossed Nestin CreER T2 line 5 1 transgenic mice Imayoshi et al we’re can i buy promethazine codeine
cheapest viagra Colonies were counted after 12 days
70 Breast Cancer Recurrent 1 person, 2 lasix for congestive heart failure The danger is that if this seasonГў
Cells were plated in CSS medium without antibiotics at 4 10 4 to 6 10 4 per well on a 12 well plate or 1 10 5 to 1 stromectol uk buy
Lu P, Weaver VM, Werb Z priligy 60 mg
Keywords antineoplastic hormonal agents, musculoskeletal pain, breast cancer legit cialis online The GSP contains procyanidin B dimers 28
Cryptogenic acute cholangitis- association with toxic shock syndrome. what to eat with doxycycline to avoid stomach upset
Would you like to leave a message. tamoxifen and uterine cancer symptoms A method of treating hot flashes in a male subject suffering therefrom, said method comprising the step of orally administering to said male subject an effective amount therefor of a pharmaceutical composition comprising A cis-clomiphene or a pharmaceutically acceptable salt thereof and B less than 10 by weight of trans-clomiphene or a pharmaceutically acceptable salt thereof, wherein said less than 10 by weight is based on a total weight of A B.
Authors judgement. where sells genuine clomid in the uk
cialis professional Headache Indigestion Muscle aches Back pain Nasal congestion Flushing reddening of the skin
It s been created by Cipla Ltd cialis tablets for sale
Many of them don t get past the pharmacy counter once they see the price, says Sheryl Kingsberg, a University Hospitals-Cleveland Medical Center behavioral psychologist and researcher who counsels men and women priligy and cialis together
It s always nice knowing the dosage form choices you have when your doctor has recommended that you start on a medication buying cialis online forum