赴台參訪隨筆:歲月靜好的台灣人有點太天真

作為媒體人有幸應邀參訪台灣,了解民間的想法是必不可少的環節。在對岸時刻都會發動戰爭的當下,台灣安全自然應該成為所有話題的重中之重。但如果你從南到北、從底層到中央參訪一遍,不難發現,台灣人似乎完全處於兩耳不聞「島外事」,依然陶醉在「歲月這邊獨好」的浪漫色彩之中。

或許是為了避免爭執等原因,民主環境下的台灣人不愛公開談論政治,對於藍綠之爭更是三緘其口。於是我的專訪對象基本以計程車司機為主,在我眼裡,這個群體不但接觸過的人特別多,還不會太在乎說話的對象是誰,因為在其一生中唯一與乘客相處的時間就是從上車到下車。計程車司機的意見成為我民意數據的主要來源。

無論計程車行駛在台灣哪一個城鎮,都能遇到參政候選人的巨幅宣傳廣告牌,司機說,這是在迎接「九合一」選舉,這也是我每次採訪的切入點。我的採訪內容主要圍繞幾個方面,令人驚訝的是每位被訪人員的回答大同小異,基本一致,藍味很濃。

台灣人對政府的滿意度非常高,至少8成以上吧,都認為當下比過去好,當然百姓眼裡的政府主要是指地方政府,他們並不在乎是藍還是綠,他們更在乎的是誰能讓百姓的生活變得更好。

他們告訴我,台灣早已不存在外省與本土的說法,每個人都在台灣土生土長,大家都是台灣人,深愛台灣。台灣的民族主義色彩還是挺濃厚的。

我發現,台灣的雙十晚會與國慶典禮均充分地展示了這一點,典型的台灣文化貫徹始終,看不到任何大陸元素的影子,唯一外來的演出團隊是日本的橘色高校吹奏樂團。台灣人認為,台灣文化包含著強烈的日本文明。

在這個言論絕對自由的土地上,台灣人普遍對中共心存幻想,他們認為中國雖然專制,但經濟發展比台灣快,工資收入也上升很快,相反台灣的收入卻上升緩慢。中國在經濟建設方面的發展幾乎讓每一個台灣人感嘆。他們都不希望出現「一國兩制」,卻認為「一國兩制」沒有戰爭恐怖。

說起收入,我發現台灣人的普遍收入是每月4萬新台幣以上,接近1萬人民幣吧。而大陸年輕人目前也都以追求每月1萬人民幣為基本的生存線。

我詢問了參訪團的一些台灣老僑,1989年時,台灣是怎樣的收入?答案是2萬5千新台幣左右,接近6千人民幣。也就是說,在33年中,工資漲幅是:37%。

1989年的時候,我在上海一家研究單位做產品設計工作,我每月的基本工資加獎金只有100人民幣,也就是440新台幣,在33年中,大陸畢業生的工資上漲了近100倍。

在89六四屠殺後,鄧小平被迫以發展經濟來平息社會對黨的不滿,開啟了所謂的「改革開放」的大門,就好比朝飢餓的百姓群里仍一筐肉包子,人們都在激烈的爭奪中快速忘記血腥傷痛,走過無數次運動的鄧小平懂得人性弱點。中國的崛起與發展確實把一部分中國人從「一窮二白」的生活圈內解救出來,但對於從未感受過月薪只有440新台幣的台灣人有必要為此羨慕嗎?

中國人的收入比例是國家機密,李克強總理不小心透露出當下六億百姓的月收入依然是1000人民幣。如果豐衣足食的台灣人生活在中國大陸,誰能保證自己不在那六億群體中呢?

另外,台灣人對中共試圖武力入侵很不以為然,他們幾乎把它看作一個笑話,普遍認為只要維持現狀,中共不會發動戰爭,何況美國在看場等等。

 「真的打過來,台灣最多只能守住七天,老百姓都上戰場也沒用。」台灣人說。「中共武力威脅是因為中共不喜歡蔡總統。」

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後,台灣媒體曾公布了一個民意調查,稱如果兩岸開戰,只有49%的台灣人願意上戰場,我當時認為這數字低得有點不現實,台灣人應該不會輕易放棄來自不易的民主台灣的。但此次台灣之行後,我發現那個民意數字偏高了,台灣人在整體上缺乏保家衛國的信心。

儘管美澳日均表達了「不會漠視台灣遭受侵略」之類的警告,但沒有一個政府保證,當台灣面臨危險時,一定出兵解救台灣。在當今的民主大環境裡,民意決定了一切,如果台灣的民意整體沒有保衛台灣而堅守到底的決心,那西方強國憑什麼要消耗巨大國力去營救台灣這隻大熊貓呢?

11月26日是台灣「九合一」選舉日,選舉口號有點不擇手段,什麼「投票民進黨,青年上戰場;投票國民黨,兩岸無戰場」,這種不負責任的宣傳多多少少會讓選民誤以為真。蔡英文不畏強權的堅定立場正贏得世界的尊重,卻遭到政治對手的無情打擊,台灣人的天真令人擔憂。

對岸試圖改變現狀只是時間與機會,要想兩岸無戰場只有兩種可能,其一,2千4百萬台灣人的抗侵略決心感召世界全力支援,並震懾侵略者的野心。其二,台灣人放棄抵抗,迎接五星紅旗插上台北總統府。

15-11-2022

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