佩洛西治好了中國的精神內耗

在中國,有很大一部分人相信中美必有一戰,認為這是世界頭把交椅更替的規律和儀式。現在盛傳佩洛西要訪台,他們興奮不已,覺得這一刻終於要來了。

大多數人思考問題都是基於認知,我背書包的那會也差不多是這個想法,甚至有次都夢到美軍打到隔壁村了。我至今都能回味那個夢境的驚恐和慌亂,現在回頭再看,真有種時空錯亂的感覺。不過,美國要來打中國?你是不是想得也太美了吧!

那個誰說什麼來着,不是人民怕美帝,而是美帝怕人民。翻開歷史看看,45年後的國共內戰,老蔣跪求美國出手相助。那會兒美國是世界上唯一擁有核武器的國家,像日本這種在東南亞瘋狂多線作戰的軍國狂魔都治得服服帖帖,還有什麼是原子彈治不了的?

但老美為什麼不出兵呢?因為人家怕中國呀!不敢打!

後來半島戰爭爆發,美國登陸仁川之後,就不停告誡中國不要參戰。結果眼看就要打下整個朝蘚半島的時候,中國入局了,雙方最終握手言和。越南的南北戰爭那會,中國出兵支援北越,老美最後只好丟下南越撤退了。

同樣是60年代,那會台灣經濟開始騰飛,「省」力漸盛。蔣介石攢了50多萬的兵力,計劃反攻大陸,並千方百計拉美國贊助。結果老美一口回絕,要打你自己打,我怕!於是蔣的如意算盤流局!美國都怕了,台灣還逞什麼強?

70年代中蘇交惡,老大哥蘇聯因為覬覦中國北方領土,碰壁後計劃核擊中國,並事先尋求美國意見。美國說,不要打!我怕!蘇聯一頭霧水,是老子打中國,你怕什麼?你只要把手插口袋裡就行。結果那邊美國已經把蘇聯的核擊計劃通過報紙給宣揚了出去,導致老大哥的計劃流局。

這些都是千真萬確,載入史冊的事件。當年毛還為此喊出了「深挖洞,廣積糧」的口號,以應對蘇聯的核威脅。如果按照中國「三國演義」的國際政治邏輯,中蘇鶴蚌相爭,美國不是漁翁得利嗎?老美為什麼不坐山觀虎鬥呢?

這就是認知的問題了,超出認知範圍的東西,是無法理解,旁人也無法解釋的。所以不如說美國是怕了,有助於理解消化。

那麼,在四十年代美國具備絕對核武優勢的情況下,在五六十年代中國貧弱不堪,甚至陷入三年「修仙」期的情況下,以及七十年代蘇聯都想核擊中國的情況下,老美都怕中國,你們覺得現在的美國敢打一個全球第二大經濟體?

所以,大家怕是得放棄一些幼稚的想法,老老實實地享受和平。就算你想打,人家也不一定會奉陪。很多人認為中國只要打台灣,美國就會加入戰局。這顯然也是一廂情願的想法,你看看烏克蘭,人家可是白人國家。在俄羅斯發起入侵之前,美國就已經獲取這一情報,他連烏克蘭都不保,會介入台灣?

美國出不出兵,首先是由法律決定的,跟烏克蘭一樣,美國與台灣之間也沒有明確的安保協議。美烏之間倒有個核安保條款,但只有在烏克蘭面臨核威脅的時候才會觸發。所以,美台之間是純粹的價值觀聯盟,要真打起來,出不出手還得走國會程序。而最終,還是會像對烏克蘭一樣,一手援助,一手制裁。

即便如此,中國這邊也不是說打就打的。真要打台灣,必須得滿足兩個條件,一是能百分百拿下,二是做好心理準備,徹底不跟西方國家混了。

之前我也在文章里提過,不要小瞧了台灣,真不是你想拿就能拿的。人家有800多架軍事飛機,其中戰機129架,都是性能更為優越的美式戰機,打起來真不好說。而且根據美國一個軍事網站的排名,台灣的軍力排名是世界21。烏克蘭排哪?剛好在台灣後面,第22。結果排名世界第二的軍事強國俄羅斯,在烏克蘭戰場上打了將近半年,竟然越打越尷尬,進退兩難。

時代不同了,現在的國際環境就是譴責用戰爭來解決爭端,一旦挑起戰事,你面對的就不僅僅是一個國家,而是整個國際社會。所以,就算中國能拿下台灣,還得考慮國際社會,除非你真的不要跟人家過了。

但是在這樣一個全球化的貿易時代,你怎麼可能做一個「單身漢」?人家不賣你芯片,手機電腦這些電子產品怎麼用?人家不賣機床,你製造業怎麼運轉?人家不賣你抗癌藥和高端醫學材料,得多少科室得關門?

月初時普京自己就親口承認,俄自主科技項目全線潰敗,每天上千家企業關門。如果你真邁出這一步,跟西方國家翻臉,那普京要笑死了,剛好拿你去納投名狀,藉機解圍。

當然,也絕無可能走到這一步。中國駐美大使秦剛就明確表態了,中國熱愛和平,不是蘇聯,不想打新冷戰。也反對意識形態對抗,反對脫鈎斷供,不搞軍備競賽,防止陷入霸權競爭的陷阱。關於台灣問題,也盡最大努力爭取和平統一,而不願看到同胞相殘。這才代表了中國外交的真實態度,也是得體和明智的。

你以為美國民主黨是真想搞點事嗎?人家過幾個月就中期選舉了,不搞點花樣怎麼應付期中考?中國這邊恰好缺一個民族主義的燃點,何不順水推舟,動員全網起來罵一罵。

這樣就能把需要贍養老母親的「二舅」們,和讓空姐冒雨等小兩時的「周劼」們,擰成一股繩,同仇敵愾了。佩洛西一下就治好了中國的精神內耗。等這波熱度過去,二舅們又會發現自己沒有工作,沒有對象,而周劼們六七套房,姑娘排隊等着他挑。所以,美國啊!千萬不要停!

(全文轉自微信公眾號斷木隱竹乙,原文已被刪除)

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