低民調的拜登應比集權一身的習近平睡得安穩

美國期中選舉大致底定,民主黨保住參議院多數席次,地方政府改選後的州數加一,眾議院則以些微差距讓出了議長位置。若考慮到選前拜登的民調錶現有多差(支持度低檔徘徊在40%左右),這樣的結果確實可讓民主黨人鬆一口氣,美國人對拜登因應通膨不利,懲罰顯得相當輕微。隨後,拜登便以此為基礎,和甫以全勝之姿取得第三任期的習近平在峇里島會面,而前者的從容或許又多了一點。

站在中國立場,要超越美國世界強權地位,除了經濟、科技、軍武迎頭趕上,很大程度也必須看「民主劣勢」發揮到什麼程度。民主劣勢主要來自選舉的一體兩面,一是服從民意,一是分裂民意,美國民意愈分裂,對民主就愈不信任,對民主愈不信任,社會共識就愈難整合,共識愈難整合,自由即成混亂,亂到一個地步,便會回過頭被拿去凸顯中國「維穩」、「秩序」獨裁體制的優勢,所謂「中國全過程人民民主」就這麼冒出來的。

所以對中國來說,當然要積極催化民主劣勢。如同本次美國期中選舉,網路安全公司「Mandiant」選前不斷警告,一個名為「龍橋」(Dragonbridge)的網站,屢屢透過自製消息傳播美國政治內訌和黨派之爭,並以「傷口撒鹽」操作手法,試圖擴大美國政治上的兩極化。這個網站不僅是「似是而非的資訊」、「陰謀論」、「凡事就責美國(如要美國對北溪天然氣管道爆炸負責)」的中央廚房,最終目的更在否定美式民主,懷疑投票。

不可否認,美國近來民主選舉縱使未到千瘡百孔,政客語言、行為的極端化,確實讓它滿布暗礁。但這次期中選舉卻又帶有自我修正味道。CNN選舉當天出口民調,顯示了美國人對現任和前任總統的評價淨值皆屬負數,結果選民的確在投票時,既對拜登內政(經濟)不利做出反應(讓出眾議院多數席次/議長),也沒有讓「川普效應」極大化(沒有出現「紅色浪潮」),只是對後者的強烈反對,看似又稍微抵銷了一點對前者的強烈反對。議題取向上(如墮胎權),則是讓本次期中選舉的政黨選擇,略為多過了對總統本身的信任投票。州政府選舉也僅是細微消長,大體上還是紅藍各半。

可以預見,選舉一時,黨派競爭(鬥爭)卻將持續,問題在爭到什麼程度,斗到哪個方向?以及它將如何影響舉美中關係發展,假若確實如選前預期,一旦共和黨掌握眾議院,國會將對中國採取更嚴厲態度,諸如增加對中國投資的資本流動限制,強化避免美國技術落入中國,乃至對台灣支持的再躍進。另一方面的假設是,若民主黨繼續掌握參議院,拜登的對中政策將有更多迴旋空間,例如從美中衝突的死結轉至因應氣候變遷、全球糧食、健康等合作上。如今剛好兩個結果都發生了。

但兩個結果同時發生恐怕非中國所樂見。尤其牽涉台灣議題,若眾議院真的再推進對台支持,就美國權力分立精神,縱然是在野黨推動的議案,仍有實質法理意義,北京卻無法直接歸咎是白宮發動挑釁(例如民主黨籍眾議院議長裴洛西訪台),這將削弱習近平「反對外國勢力干涉台灣」的力度。

再者,就算民主黨續掌參議院,可為中美合作製造彈性,則習近平如何在「氣勢如虹」的第三任初始就「放軟」和美國走在一起?更況今天的選舉結果,卻也等同穩固了拜登之前的台海議題論說,即他在峇里島峰會重申的:「在台灣問題上,美國一個中國政策沒有改變,美國反對任何一方片面改變現狀…反對中國對台灣採取脅迫性和日益侵略性的行動…」。

「中國不武力犯台」就是拜登畫下中美不撕破臉的底線,在這底線上,美中衝突容有化險為夷可能,除非中國已決定走向「俄羅斯化」,完全不理會拜登試圖將中美關係往合作方向推展(如峇里島會談所說),否則期中選舉後沒有「提前跛腳」,又明指反對中國武力犯台的拜登,將因習近平的「武力統一論」繼續和其糾纏對立下去。

習近平在黨內驚滔駭浪的派系鬥爭下連任,拜登則在兩黨期中選舉上驚險過關,剛好成為極權、民主鮮明對比。如果說,西方國家對中國式獨裁長期有所誤判,還嚴重受綏靖誤導,同樣的,從未經歷真正民主洗禮的中國,可能對民主選舉,以及長期生活在民主自由國家下的人民和政府也有嚴重錯讀,何況民主的過程,往往比他們看到的結果影響更深遠,此間「錯讀」,應該只會為中國對外關係帶來傷害。

自拜登和習近平身上,我們另外看到民主機制和極權體系的最大差異,美國總統民調跌到四成不會死人,一場期中選舉就又充飽電,中國政府得到「人民93%的支持」卻還不足夠,統治手段必須更鐵腕。人性常理判斷,集權一身的習近平恐怕會比低民調的拜登睡得更不安穩。

(※作者為《上報》主筆,原文轉自上報)

關注時事,訂閱新聞郵件
本訂閱可隨時取消
90 評論
  1. Hiffio User Says

    lamisil 250mg generic cheap terbinafine order trimox without prescription

  2. Nqvkmb User Says

    buy tadalafil 10mg tadacip price order generic indomethacin

  3. Umgame User Says

    buy anastrozole without prescription buy anastrozole 1 mg online oral arimidex

  4. Yoratc User Says

    retin cream oral avana for sale purchase avanafil pill

  5. Gvmtku User Says

    deltasone 20mg without prescription mebendazole 100mg without prescription mebendazole order

  6. Difkrx User Says

    sildenafil 100mg canada fildena 50mg over the counter order budesonide pill

  7. Hwmzcb User Says

    order lasix 100mg purchase doxycycline sale buy hydroxychloroquine sale

  8. Vuwbfh User Says

    play roulette free for fun order provigil 200mg pills modafinil 200mg cheap

  9. Rvwweb User Says

    purchase azithromycin pills buy zithromax 250mg online buy gabapentin 600mg without prescription

  10. Rkzimg User Says

    online blackjack real money cialis 10mg canada prices of cialis

  11. Hpihed User Says

    buy sildenafil online sildenafil fast shipping order tadalafil sale

  12. Focnzn User Says

    buy deltasone 10mg pills order isotretinoin 10mg without prescription amoxil 250mg ca

  13. Bkieiw User Says

    sildenafil 100mg tablets order lamictal for sale order lamictal 200mg online cheap

  14. Fsbfot User Says

    how to write an essay about my life essays done for you ivermectin 3 mg without prescription

  15. Stfawb User Says

    trazodone 50mg uk cost desyrel 100mg aurogra order

  16. Yguyqg User Says

    gambling online where to buy cialis order tadalafil 10mg online

  17. Brpvnb User Says

    ceftin 500mg canada buy methocarbamol 500mg online purchase robaxin pill

  18. Suvnmp User Says

    keflex usa cleocin usa buy erythromycin 250mg generic

  19. Vuyhlr User Says

    order generic fluconazole 100mg purchase viagra online sildenafil medication

  20. Gtqvpa User Says

    metronidazole 400mg canada metronidazole 200mg without prescription buy bactrim 960mg generic

  21. Lsnpsi User Says

    simvastatin 10mg brand order simvastatin 20mg online cheap proscar sale

  22. Uqxjdz User Says

    cheap tadalafil 10mg us cialis sales ciprofloxacin 500mg generic

  23. Dctlty User Says

    buy flomax 0.2mg generic cost tamsulosin 0.4mg aldactone for sale online

  24. Uuteif User Says

    roulette online wind creek casino online play money poker online

  25. Rwcgmr User Says

    buy zantac 150mg pill order ranitidine generic cost celecoxib

  26. Egvihe User Says

    cheap colchicine 0.5mg poker online for fun blackjack online for real money

  27. Islvhd User Says

    buy sumatriptan 50mg without prescription buy levaquin 500mg online avodart over the counter

  28. Zqvpco User Says

    lioresal online toradol uk order generic toradol 10mg

  29. Vsvczp User Says

    purchase cozaar generic brand topiramate 100mg topiramate 100mg sale

  30. Grqbzv User Says

    motilium 10mg without prescription buy tetracycline 250mg pill order cyclobenzaprine pills

  31. Ikuzyo User Says

    purchase methotrexate for sale order warfarin 5mg for sale cost metoclopramide 10mg

  32. Ajypoi User Says

    allopurinol over the counter zyloprim for sale order ezetimibe pills

  33. Fssako User Says

    cialis in usa viagra cialis viagra 50mg price

  34. Yqtjbr User Says

    priligy 30mg uk dapoxetine 90mg over the counter order synthroid 75mcg pill

  35. Zzajfx User Says

    triamcinolone 4mg drug desloratadine 5mg drug order desloratadine 5mg for sale

  36. Xfbejs User Says

    cialis 10mg cialis 10mg price sildenafil 100mg sale

  37. Wiyylz User Says

    cheap clomid purchase clomid generic play casino online

  38. Gyeudp User Says

    academicwriting term papers for sale online sildenafil 20 mg

  39. Ykfqlb User Says

    vardenafil 10mg price buy levitra 10mg without prescription medrol 4 mg without a doctor prescription

  40. Zmbslj User Says

    best essay service slots games free real money spins online

  41. Mvdocx User Says

    order generic lopressor 50mg buy vardenafil generic levitra drug

  42. Ocdyqw User Says

    buy prilosec 10mg pill buy omeprazole online cheap roulette online free

  43. Jpdklh User Says

    purchase zyvox generic slot online online gambling real money

  44. Xwzddm User Says

    buy viagra 50mg pill lisinopril 5mg over the counter buy lisinopril 2.5mg

  45. Ucxnvt User Says

    purchase norvasc pill amlodipine 5mg canada tadalafil 20mg drug

  46. Ultnot User Says

    brand olanzapine 10mg bystolic 20mg drug valsartan 80mg canada

  47. Nphatw User Says

    order glycomet 1000mg without prescription purchase glycomet pills cialis 20mg tablet

  48. Bghwou User Says

    sporanox without prescription order sporanox without prescription order tindamax for sale

  49. Jxkrws User Says

    chloroquine 250mg oral purchase cenforce online cheap olumiant 4mg for sale

  50. Pexjsz User Says

    tadalafil 5 mg tablet buy clomipramine 25mg online anafranil 25mg for sale

  51. Jirivp User Says

    order furosemide 100mg for sale hydroxychloroquine pills plaquenil 200mg over the counter

  52. Utxaon User Says

    order cialis 40mg brand name viagra canadian viagra online pharmacy

  53. Pwucqa User Says

    zithromax 250mg price order generic prednisolone 40mg purchase gabapentin

  54. Xysqpp User Says

    nootropil 800mg pill purchase viagra pill sildenafil dosage

  55. Skgbil User Says

    accutane pill generic deltasone 5mg buy deltasone 5mg generic

  56. Yqizkj User Says

    buy fluvoxamine 100mg for sale buy cymbalta 20mg order glipizide 10mg without prescription

  57. Ajrjzm User Says

    modafinil 100mg cheap stromectol 6mg canada ivermectin for humans for sale

  58. Vajwya User Says

    medroxyprogesterone 10mg over the counter buy hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg pills brand periactin 4 mg

  59. Rxjwmt User Says

    dapsone order online perindopril 4mg pills buy perindopril 4mg generic

  60. Ziixxx User Says

    order revia 50 mg letrozole 2.5 mg over the counter order abilify 30mg generic

  61. Ovbale User Says

    tadalafil 20mg price buy tadalafil without prescription amantadine brand

  62. Ijtdpk User Says

    cheap tadalafil pill rx pharmacy online cialis viagra 50mg drug

  63. Jbgybl User Says

    buy imuran 100 mcg online cheap order generic pantoprazole viagra 50mg

  64. Fkrioz User Says

    purchase molnunat generic order molnunat 200 mg pill lansoprazole 15mg sale

  65. Imziit User Says

    order bupropion 150mg for sale cetirizine online order generic quetiapine 100mg

  66. Fcgdzx User Says

    isosorbide 40mg over the counter order micardis 80mg pills telmisartan 20mg generic

  67. Zliqto User Says

    purchase tacrolimus for sale labetalol ca brand ursodiol 150mg

  68. Ufoxsp User Says

    benicar online buy order benicar online acetazolamide 250 mg pills

  69. Lwgyzg User Says

    fosamax 35mg over the counter buy ibuprofen pill famotidine 40mg sale

  70. Ivjnii User Says

    order terazosin 5mg order terazosin online cheap buy generic sulfasalazine 500 mg

  71. Bmiits User Says

    buy buspirone 10mg online cheap purchase buspar pills order oxybutynin without prescription

  72. Diylrd User Says

    order clonidine 0.1mg online order minocycline 100mg generic buy tiotropium bromide 9 mcg online cheap

  73. Jkikfk User Says

    altace price astelin 10 ml oral order generic astelin 10 ml

  74. Mkfolh User Says

    doxycycline 200mg ca doxycycline price buy lasix pill

  75. Nrpjnl User Says

    provigil ca buy provigil 100mg online cheap order diamox 250mg

  76. Waoezb User Says

    brand accutane buy amoxicillin generic stromectola online

  77. Tlpupr User Says

    tadalafil 5mg generika rezeptfrei kaufen viagra 100mg kaufen für männer sildenafil 50mg kaufen ohne rezept

  78. Plrozt User Says

    order deltasone generic generic cialis price sildenafil 100mg usa

  79. Rlwmmg User Says

    tadalafil 10mg generique pas cher viagra generique pas cher viagra generique pas cher

  80. Awrsdt User Says

    best cialis sites online cialis coupons buy sildenafil

  81. Itmqwq User Says

    indomethacin order online buy terbinafine order trimox 500mg generic

  82. Ulatdd User Says

    isotretinoin 20mg us oral accutane 20mg oral azithromycin 250mg

  83. Wsiemk User Says

    tadalis brand buy avanafil 100mg online diclofenac 100mg for sale

  84. Qubthu User Says

    buy generic lamotrigine order tretinoin cream for sale retin gel cost

  85. Dhaylm User Says

    suhagra 100mg uk sildenafil 100mg for sale estradiol 2mg tablet

  86. Jogmyv User Says

    order sildenafil sale robaxin oral order methocarbamol 500mg pills

  87. Asvnin User Says

    buy acillin pills order erythromycin generic order erythromycin sale

  88. Iequto User Says

    order spironolactone online cheap generic valtrex 1000mg buy diflucan sale

  89. Oqppbi User Says

    order dutasteride for sale flomax 0.2mg generic buy zofran 4mg without prescription

  90. Kggthu User Says

    levofloxacin for sale levaquin 500mg generic

發表評論

您的郵件地址未經允許不會泄露給第三方。