在一個充滿不確定性的世界中,衝突打破了和平,中東地區的哈馬斯襲擊以色列成為了最新焦點,已有超過700人喪生。作為回應,以色列瞄準哈馬斯進行報復,據報道已有400多人喪生。持續不斷的衝突使市場陷入波動的陰影。
對金融市場的影響:中東的暴力衝突引發了避險資產的激增。美元走強,而像日元和瑞士法郎等傳統避險貨幣也得到支持。原油價格上漲約3%至4%。
黃金閃耀奪目:在不斷升級的緊張局勢下,黃金經歷了一輪顯著的上漲,延續了上周積極的非農就業數據後的漲勢。最近的趨勢打破了短期的看跌旗形圖案,阻止了黃金測試每盎司略高於1800美元的關鍵支撐位。儘管總體非農就業數據遠遠超出預期,但平均薪資下降令美聯儲感到滿意,因為他們將繼續對抗通脹。最新的美國通脹報告將於周四公布,預計核心和總體通脹率都將下降。
英鎊/美元:焦點在美國9月CPI:中東衝突的影響導致市場的避險情緒升溫,英鎊/美元在周一開盤時下跳空。此外,上周五公布的美國9月非農數據遠超預期,顯示美國勞動力市場仍然非常強勁。然而,貨幣市場對於美聯儲在11月的利率預期沒有太大變化,除非本周四公布的美國9月CPI數據出現意外,否則不太可能引發市場的重新定價。
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In an uncertain world marred by conflicts, the recent Hamas attack on Israel in the Middle East has grabbed headlines, resulting in over 700 casualties. Israel’s retaliatory strikes, targeting Hamas, have reportedly claimed the lives of over 400 individuals. This ongoing strife has cast a shadow of market volatility.
Market Impact: The violent turmoil in the Middle East has triggered a surge in safe-haven assets. The U.S. dollar has strengthened, and traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have gained support. Crude oil prices have risen by approximately 3% to 4%.
Gold Shines Bright: Amidst rising tensions, gold has surged significantly, continuing its upward trajectory following last week’s robust non-farm payroll data. This recent trend has shattered short-term bearish patterns and prevented gold from testing the critical support level just above $1,800 per ounce. Despite non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, a drop in average wages has been favorable to the Federal Reserve as they continue to combat inflation. The latest U.S. inflation report, expected to reveal declines in both core and overall inflation rates, will be released on Thursday.
GBP/USD: Focus on U.S. September CPI: The Middle East conflict’s impact has escalated market risk aversion, leading to a gap down in GBP/USD at Monday’s opening. Additionally, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data, released last Friday, significantly outperformed expectations, indicating the ongoing strength of the U.S. labor market. However, unless unexpected developments occur with the release of U.S. September CPI data on Thursday, it is unlikely to prompt a market reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook for November.
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