习近平不动摇 中国动摇了

刚刚过去的星期六,许多中国人的期待再一次破灭,中国国家卫建委重申习近平指示:坚决清零不动摇。费加罗报说,继续清零,等于给精英们发出了起跑走人的信号。

清零让老百姓绝望,但坚决清零的官员获得高升。有人指出,从习近平重用前上海市委书记李强看,谁清零最坚决,谁就能获得习近平的信任。今年四月,李强忠实地执行习近平的清零政策,上海一夜之间全城封锁。被视为中国经济的窗口,中国最现代化的大都市上海到处是苦难的呼声,上海一名护士因哮喘发作前往自己工作的医院求诊,但因该院急诊室关闭而被拒之门外,她的不幸死亡让许多中国人心寒。封城的结果导致上海经济出现罕见的负增长,根据中国财政部九月公布的数据,2022年上半年31个省市自治区全部财政赤字, 就连上海竟然也有赤字18亿。

然而许多观察人士注意到一个不可否认的事实,中国领导人习近平坚持清零不动摇的铁杆立场,正在动摇着中国改开四十年来的经济基础,动摇着民心。许多人本以为习近平二十大连任后即使不会把人人诅咒、效果不璋的清零政策立刻取消,至少也会放松了。中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学前首席科学家曾光11月4日也在花旗银行举办的一场会议上表示,中国正在执行的防疫动态清零政策很快将发生实质性改变。

次日,中国国家卫健委召开记者会,给全社会希望放松清零政策的期盼气氛浇了一桶冷水:继续坚持“动态清零总方针“不动摇。与此前后,大上海封城的悲剧又在各地重演,兰州一名三岁男孩,煤气中毒,医院离家仅仅十分钟距离,因为到处封锁耽误抢救不幸死亡;内蒙古呼和浩特一位妇人跳楼,她的女儿要冲出楼门求救,但门被焊死了无法出去……

因清零遭难的人太多了。甚至被视为优越的红二代,被视为把党的话当作圣经的人也怒吼起来。中共老一代领导人陶铸之女陶斯亮的‘弹窗’以自己出京参加活动而不能入京的荒诞经历,再好不过地揭示了过度防疫下中国人面临的荒诞和无可奈何的处境;反美网红周小平,破天荒呼吁“实事求是”:国外尸横遍野,医疗崩溃,“那都不是事实”。

以三星、东芝、苹果等为代表的外资企业为中国创造了近50%的对外贸易的规模,但是清零清到许多国际厂家已经无法继续留在中国的地步,它们或已被搬走,或准备离开,而中国的外贸在十月份跌入低谷,法新社报道“十月份中国出口进口双双崩溃“,并直接归咎于习近平的“清零政策”。

许多中国人对自己的国家失望,不仅仅因为清零,而是二十大呈现的结果让他们没有了希望。费加罗报11月8日报道,中国的富人正在用脚投票,中国共产党第二十次代表大会确认了人民共和国的 “红色 “极权主义转向,催逼着该国最富裕的精英们逃往国外。而教条式的清零战略,给少数受过良好教育且富裕的人发出了起跑的信号,根据总部设在伦敦的高端移民机构Henley & Partners的一份报告,今年有超过10000名高收入的中国人正在积极寻求移民,其中近一半的人已经采取了行动。

纽约时报的报道说,中国的商界精英陷入了“政治抑郁。”许多商人受“新冠清零”政策影响损失惨重,政府追求的消灭新冠病毒的目标已导致许多城市封城,数百万人被锁在家中,有时长达好几周。深圳一名硬件技术领域的高管说,“在这个独裁者的带领下,这个国家在走向深渊。”“你看着它下坠,那种无力感让我痛心、抑郁。”

民怨四起,国际企业纷纷逃离,一些观察人士还在寻找蛛丝马迹,习近平的“坚决清零不动摇”究竟何时动摇?华尔街日报的报道称,中国考虑逐步退出动态清零,但没有时间表。有些分析指,这个时间有可能还需要一年。

这种预测和分析多大程度上可靠?正如二十大前所有的预测都指习近平可能会在二十大连任后放松清零,结果落空了,有些人还给出了另外一个时间表,等到三月份习近平续任国家主席后,清零就可以放弃了?

也有分析称,清零不清零,全在习近平一句话,说不定习近平哪一天认为“时机成熟了”,也就是面子上说得过去了,会以“生命至上人民至上”,并且清零“取得重大成果”的姿态,宣布放开?

有人说,在看不到头的情况下,能润就润吧,要不然等到习主席的人马明年三月控制了全部机构,就来不及走了。费加罗报援引专家评论:精英们或可逃走,对于中国14亿人口中的绝大多数人来说,这是一种无法触及的奢侈,他们被剥夺了护照,被饱灌令人焦虑的宣传……

清零给中国和中国人带来的伤害是难以估量的。

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