G20拜习会成果:中美恢复接触与交流

G20期间国际社会最受人瞩目的两件事,首推国际社会期望已久的拜登习近平会面,其次则是乌俄两国同框出现。按西方国家的态度与立场,本应该成为乌克兰走秀之地,却被一枚不该出现在波兰土地上的导弹让北约忙于调查澄清,乌俄两国同框出现的种种预期镜像也随着烟消云散。不过,一直不想成为中美冲突的附带受害者的东盟国家总算放下心来,因为拜习会达到了中美两国与这些国家的最低预期:恢复沟通与经贸合作,保持对话。这恰好是西方媒体极少着墨之处。

拨开花絮看成果:五个同意

看了不少关于G20的报道,发现大家关注花絮远过于实质,被所有媒体津津乐道的是习近平与加拿大总理特鲁多的谈话,还有拜登步履轻快地走向习近平——可见重实质远逊于重面子。本文不谈那些满世界炒的会议花絮,因为有些实在对西方国家不太有利。只谈两国这场来之不易的元首峰会的成果。

一场会谈两国各自表述,是疫情之后中国与西方各国之间元首见面或者高级会议的老把戏了。这次比较没有分歧的内容报道是中美双方五个“双方同意”:

两国元首同意,双方外交团队保持战略沟通,开展经常性磋商——相比前一向中国一怒之下停止气候合作方面的协商会谈,算是解冻。

同意两国财经团队就宏观经济政策、经贸等问题开展对话协调——中国要出口,美国希望恢复中国制造的正常供应链,以降低国内通胀。出于互利,不再别苗头了。

同意共同努力推动《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十七次缔约方大会取得成功。双方就开展两国公共卫生、农业和粮食安全对话合作达成一致——这对美国比较重要,因为美国现在彰显世界领导力主要在这些方面,气候问题与LGBTQ价值观成为美国外交的两大抓手。中国不比他国,现阶段要求北京配合在中国推广LGBTQI,非常不现实,但至少必须先让中国在气候问题上合作。

同意用好中美联合工作组,推动解决更多具体问题——美国政府一直希望中美之间达成风险管控,有个中美联合工作组,至少可以成为化解危机、避免冷战的一个工具。

同意中美人文交流十分重要,鼓励扩大两国各领域人员交往——考虑到中国现在因外汇管制,几乎不放开私人国外旅游,人文交流应该以官方为主。

双方既合作又矛盾的几个点

但其他方面,两国该较劲的还会继续较劲:

美国会继续对中国开展高科技领域技术出口的限制;美国一时还离不开中国制造,对华逆差过大状况不会迅速改观;美国希望中国继续购买美债,而中国也没有多少余力,不想再帮这忙。

中国还将继续加强军备与国防建设,维持核大国地位,美国还将继续施加压力说服中国加入核军控,中国还会继续以老办法对应:“要么你的数量降低到我的数量,要么我的数量增加到你的数量,否则免谈”。

以上这些都不是依靠高层接触与联合工作组会谈能够解决的问题,中美两国对此心知肚明,但美国还必须要与中国谈,特别是气候议题和穷国债负问题。这比较虚的问题,不易起冲突,双方也各种牟利空间,就算谈不好,也不会陷入图穷匕首现的尴尬状态,中国愿意周旋。

作为东道主与准东道主的东南亚诸国,近几十年的好日子,基本建立在中美合作友好关系的基础上,两头的好处都尽数沾上。中美两国近几年别苗头,这些国家最担忧的就是“两头大象打架,踏坏了我家草地”;如今两国元首总算见面握手,并达成双方“五个同意”了,于是放下一半心来。这算是G20峰会宾主尽欢,圆满收场。弄得各国记者无Bad News可报,只好抓住花絮大做文章。

未达成共识、各自表述的将来必是冲突点

中美两国公报各自表述的主要是台湾与人权问题,按惯例,台湾为主,人权为辅。

白宫在其对话纪要中,除了公告拜登重申对台湾问题的立场与一个中国政策没变, 还宣布了就美中双边议题,拜登表达了对新疆、西藏和香港人权的 “关切”,并警告说美国将 “继续与中国进行激烈的竞争”,但表示双方有必要 “保持沟通渠道畅通”。会议商定,美国国务卿安东尼-布林肯将很快访问中国。

拜登在与习近平会晤之后向记者表示,他不认为中国有很快入侵台湾的企图。

根据外交部声明,习近平则在会谈中告诉拜登,世界之大足以让两国繁荣和竞争,同时警告华盛顿不要跨越台湾问题的 “红线”。习近平向拜登说,”解决台湾问题是中国的事。”“涉及中国核心利益,是中美关系的政治基础,是中美关系中不可逾越的第一条红线“。

这两个公报合在一起看,其实就是中美将来的冲突爆发点。台湾问题是核心,新疆、西藏与香港是捎带。在台湾问题上,美国的底线是:宣示一中政策不变,尊重一中一台的现实,中国不能武力统一。而中国的底线是:不管用什么手段,中国必须统一,宣示和平统一的同时,决不放弃武统这一选项。实施手段就是目前对台湾的非军事行动。

中美关系如炼炉  时间如炭

从拜习会谈及以往双方宣示,可总结出现阶段中美两国关系的主要脉络:对抗是两国的国家战略,全方位竞争是手段,经济合作是双方都无法舍弃的红利。至于未来如何走,有个时间参数。俗话说得好:时间会改变一切,尤其是美国这个世界强国对各国的关系,世界都很清楚时间的作用:总统有任期,每个总统的政治理念决定其任期内的内政外交政策重心。比如古巴与美为敌大半个世纪,奥巴马时期就实行了解冻政策;川普任期内,美国司法部曾于2020年3月对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗等人提出多项指控,罪名包括毒品恐怖主义、跨国贩卖可卡因等,悬赏1500万美元全球通缉。但不久前在埃及气候峰会上,如今的美国总统气候问题特使约翰·克里却主动与马杜罗握手——这还不包括几个月前,美国试图购买委内瑞拉石油缓解俄乌战争期间的能源危机。

仅以中美关系而论,从尼克松破冰之旅开始,中美恢复邦交,美国确定的对华战略是“接触-合作-影响-改变”,这一战略的有效性主要在前三条,改变做到了一半,经济层面与中国知识界、政治反对者提对美国民主的热爱,这一热爱历经近两年美国执政党价值理念变化仍然不改。如今,经过2019年以来的剧烈摩擦,中美关系又退回至“接触-合作”这一层面。2019年3月中美贸易战开始,中国实行“以拖待变”策略,在处于劣势的状态下与美国打成平手,不仅熬到了白宫易主,还熬到国际格局从单极成为多极。

G20会议期间的拜习会,达成了最低目标,中美恢复接触-合作。不过,时势已经与尼克松那时完全不同,中国方面的估计是“东升西降”,自称“可以平视世界”了。以后中美两国关系如何演变,就只能骑驴看唱本,边走边看。变化多的将是美国,这是美国国内政治及外交政策的剧烈变化所致;而中国将仍然是以不变应万变。形象一点描绘,那就是:中美关系有如炼炉,时间有如熬炼所需要的炭材,加多加少或者不加,均由两国相机而动。

(全文转自自由亚洲电台)

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