台湾九合一选举国民党大胜 民进党惨败 2024年总统大选变数多

台湾于周六(11月26日)举行九合一选举,其中21个县市长的选举结果出炉,国民党囊括13个县市,包括4个直辖市,而最受瞩目的蒋家后代、国民党明日之星的蒋万安也高票当选台北市长。分析人士表示,此次部分地方选情打出“抗中保台”牌失灵,代表台湾选民聚焦的是内政,而非两岸问题。即便国民党大胜,台湾选民看待地方和总统大选的态度一向不同,国民党未必能乘胜追击,2024年夺回政权。

台湾每四年一届的九合一选举,共选出22个县市,包括6个直辖市(六都)、13个县和3市的县市长、市议员、乡镇及村里长等九类地方公职人员。除了嘉义市长选举延期至12月中举行外,国民党在13个县市,包括四个直辖市,赢得胜选,虽然比2018年的总席次掉了两席,但仍是此次选举的最大赢家。

国民党大胜 六都拿下四都

以最受瞩目的六都来看,国民党籍的蒋万安,以575,590票(42.29%)当选台北市长,比民进党候选人陈时中高出14万多票,更比民众党的黄珊珊高出23万票。

国民党籍的新北市长侯友宜更是以超过115万的得票(62.42%),大胜民进党对手林佳龙45万票,赢得连任。而中台湾的台中市长、国民党籍的卢秀燕也以近六成的得票率,大赢民进党蔡其昌27万票,同样连任成功。

至于执政的民进党则惨败,创下建党36年来最差的选举成绩,总席次由上一届的6席掉到只剩5席,包括原本就执政的嘉义县、台南市、高雄市及屏东县四县市,及新攻下的澎湖县。

为败选负责,身兼民进党主席的台湾总统蔡英文随即宣布,辞去党主席一职。她说,台湾行政院长苏贞昌也提出辞呈,以示对败选负责,但已获得她的慰留。

不过,台湾此次的投票率创下10年最低,平均只有61%,其中台北市的投票率为64%,略低于2018年,而新北市的投票率仅56.6%,创新低。

台湾选民怎么看?

以瞩目度最高的北市选举为例,不少市民说,他们比较重视候选人的市政政见,当然也有选民拉高层级,考虑候选人的两岸立场。

现年76岁的退休人士黄钦成说,他选人也选党。黄钦成告诉美国之音:“不爱台的政党,当然是不在考虑之内。中国大陆威胁台湾的时候,如果这个政党本身或是执政的人本身,对于爱台抗共如果不表态的话,当然是不能获得我们支持的。”

现年47岁的商界人士谢佳芳则说,她选人不选党,不过候选人的两岸立场还是会影响到她的投票意向。谢佳芳告诉美国之音:“这个(两岸关系)应该是我们台湾人现在最关心的问题,所以候选人他们对两岸的议题,的确会影响到我们投给他的意愿。”

现年37岁的工程师赖彦成则说,他没有政党偏好,只考虑候选人的政见、形象及做事态度,不会特别去看他们的两岸立场。赖彦成告诉美国之音:“地方选举,我觉得还好,总统(大选)比较是关于外交或国家方向的领导,所以这个(两岸立场)会比较重要。”

18岁公民权复决 未通过

伴随此次九合一选举的还有一项“18岁公民权”的公投,这是台湾史上首次将宪法修正案交由公民复决。该案主张公民权门槛应由20岁下修至18岁,让年满18岁的国民可依法拥有选举、罢免、创制、复决及被选举权。

不过,此公投案的通过门坎极高,至少须有近962万张同意票才能过关,最后票决结果虽有563多万人同意,高于反对者,但因未过成案门坎,最后败北。

现年30岁从事会计的台湾选民何佳蓉说,她投下的是反对票。何佳蓉告诉美国之音:“18岁才高中毕业,其实没有很了解社会上的事情,连出社会都还没,像我已经不只18岁,连我自己可能想要投谁,都还要想很久,再给他们一点时间。”

但48岁从事资讯业的台湾民众刘科成则认为,年轻选民尽早了解民主选制很重要,对他们是很好的经历。刘科成告诉美国之音:“大家都认为,年轻(人)可能是比较没有能力去做判断,可是我觉得,现在(是)网络的社会,它资讯非常发达,年龄我觉得不是问题。”

对于此次选情,位于台北的台湾大学政治系教授王业立在接受美国之音采访时表示,台湾民调显示,近十年来30岁以下的年轻人支持民进党的居多,他们多数被视为所谓“天然独”的一代,因为他们土生土长,也支持台湾现状是个主权独立的国家,不过这不代表台湾年轻人投票倾向是僵化或只受意识形态左右。

王业立说:“年轻人,我不认为他们一定是铁板一块,他们在很多不同的议题上,还是会有些他们自己的想法。当然在两岸关系上的话,可能比较支持‘维持台湾的现状’、‘中华民国台湾本来就是一个主权独立的国家’。我觉得这样子的观点,不只是年轻人,台湾绝大部分的人,大概对两岸关系的立场,也都是抱持相同的一些看法。”

抗中保台失效 台湾的隐忧?

此次选情中,民进党强力打出的“抗中保台”口号似乎失效。对此,位于美国德州的山姆休斯顿州立大学政治系副教授翁履中在接受美国之音采访时表示,此次九合一选举,负面选战打得非常激烈,撕裂台湾社会的程度,前所未有。虽然中共近几个月来对台的军事胁迫,拉高了台湾人的危机意识,但也让更多人思索求和避战的重要。

翁履中说:“(美国众议院议长)佩洛西访台之后的(中共)军演,大家会觉得说,兵凶战危的情况距离台湾更近一些,这个时候‘抗中保台’议题就不仅仅是口号或意识形态,有更多的人非常务实地来看待两岸的关系,当越务实看待两岸关系,越会觉得要维持和平,其实可能不只是喊口号,所以抗中保台牌在台湾的选举里面,我相信它的影响力会越来越小。”

台湾外交部长吴钊燮曾于选前坦言,中国对此次台湾选举的干预“不如以往普遍”。对此,翁履中说,就他对国际局势的观察,中国越来越倾向忽略台湾的民意,这是相当大的隐忧。

翁履中说:“中国现在对台湾整个的观察,你会发现,完全是跟美国对话,已经逐渐不跟台湾对话,当然一方面没有沟通管道也是原因。但另外一方面,中国已经认定,现在非常亲美路线的台湾,基本上(中国)只要跟美国谈好就好了,这也是台湾的一大隐忧。”

民进党九合一大败 2024年总统大选显败象?

对于此次民进党的挫败,位于台北的中华亚太菁英交流协会秘书长王智盛分析,应是台湾选民表达对疫情控制和疫苗政策的不满,不应归咎于对民进党的“仇恨值”。

王智盛说,2018年总统大选时,民进党从谷底大反弹并全面做大,去年底的四大公投也在社会对立的氛围下一一被完封,完全无损民进党的执政。民进党这些年成功打响抗中保台牌,也一路掌握所有相关政治论述的主导权,让在野人士很难找到宣泄的出口。不过,民进党政府近期在疫情的处理上,少了柔软身段及与社会沟通的能量,以至于中间选民渐趋冷漠。他说,蓝营跟中间选民间的最大公约数,不见得是下架民进党,而是给民进党一个教训,因此导致其此次的选举挫败。

九合一选举普遍被视为2024年台湾总统大选的前哨战,此次蓝营大胜,是否能于2024年乘胜追击,夺回政权呢?王智盛分析,台湾选举一向有“钟摆效应”,意指选民会在下一次的选举让前一次大败的阵营收复失土。例如,过去10年的六次选举中,台湾两大党的势力互有消长,也大多呈“钟摆效应”,此次也获得佐证。在此走势下,他说,2024年的总统大选,这次大败的民进党或许还是相对有利。

王智盛说:“台湾的选民是很有趣的,在地方选举怎么投,跟在中央全国性选举怎么投,恐怕是两件事情。短期内,‘抗中保台’或‘台湾主体意识’,恐怕还是一个选出台湾总统最重要的关键因素。”

九合一后 中共对台态度将软化?

亲中的国民党大胜,让台湾多数县市仍是一片蓝天,是否将影响中共对台态度?王智盛认为,对于中共而言,“台湾选举是一时的,台湾统一是必然的。”中共也观察到,不管有没有渗透台湾选举,民进党不可能从中央到地方长期执政,中国随时有见缝插针的机会。因此,北京未来或许会缓和武统的强硬立场,但恐难扭转台湾“抗中保台”的思维。台湾几次选举下来,北京恐已倾向重新思考,如何用较温和、更多元的和平统一手段,来改变台湾民意。

王智盛说:“武统的代价是高的,除非到了绝对没有转圜的时候,(中共)才会这样进行。当它看到台湾的选举,原来是可以‘钟摆’,原来是可以因为不是两岸抗中保台的因素而转变,我觉得这会让北京认为说,我的和统只要找到对的方法,还是有机会影响台湾选举,改变两岸关系走向和平统一。”

“蒋家后代” 蒋万安成总统热门人选?

此次最令国际关注的是“蒋家后代”蒋万安的选情。外媒分析,蒋万安的胜选或可扭转两岸关系的未来走向。王智盛说,蒋万安入主台北市府后,两岸论坛可望继续,国民党和北京也保有沟通和交流的窗口。

王智盛说,蒋万安拿下最重要的地方公职职位时,已然取得政治先机,尤其他在中共眼中又是“正统”蓝营人物,未来甚至有机会循“马英九模式”登上总统大位。

王智盛说:“首都市长都是竞争总统大位的必经之路,陈水扁、马英九到这次蒋万安。蒋万安搞不好连任(市长)、八年的历练之后,他是不是有机会更上一层楼,这个可能是北京未来押宝的对象。”

不过,台大政治系的王业立说,蒋万安虽是蒋家后代,跟中国渊源也不浅,但中共短期内还是会对其听其言、观其行。

王业立说:“蒋万安当选了之后,对于两岸关系,基本上比较是有正面的作用。我想他本身也会非常谨慎地处理两岸的议题。他目前在台湾人心目中的话,跟(前国民党总统候选人)韩国瑜是不太一样的,因为韩国瑜统派色彩可能比较浓一些,可是蒋万安在这一方面,没有太明确的表态,所以中国大陆方面也是要听其言、观其行。”

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